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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151743
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the
Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system has
become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move
through a favorable environment for further development. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the
middle to latter part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 Sep 2025 18:57:10 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151709
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP3/EP132025)
...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 20.0, -113.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 113.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 113.2 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is anticipated today, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. Mario could become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been bursting near the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally a little higher. Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for this advisory. Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The biggest question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days, with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI. For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger mid-level southerly flow. The new forecast is a touch to the right of the previous one. The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for intensification. By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear. Mario should lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h. The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam
Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 151434
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 15:22:19 GMT