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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

013 
ABNT20 KNHC 010519
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters
off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur
thereafter as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:30:08 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

310 
ABPZ20 KNHC 010516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 150 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 03:00 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 the center of Flossie was located near 16.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 062 
WTPZ31 KNHC 010258
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the 
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight 
through Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 063 
WTPZ21 KNHC 010258
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 241 
WTPZ41 KNHC 010310 CCA
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

Corrected Key Message 1 from Tropical Storm to Hurricane.
 
The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this 
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past 
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in 
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. 
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z 
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these 
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity 
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making 
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during 
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in 
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very 
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a 
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, 
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In 
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official 
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast 
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours 
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then 
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins 
to entrain dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a 
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the 
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid 
intensification.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 053 
FOPZ11 KNHC 010259
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)  11(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 105W       34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34 21   6(27)   2(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
L CARDENAS     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 110W       34  1   5( 6)  46(52)  31(83)   8(91)   X(91)   X(91)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  36(44)  12(56)   X(56)   X(56)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  10(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   5( 5)  21(26)  26(52)   6(58)   1(59)   X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Hurricane Flossie Graphics

Hurricane Flossie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT

Hurricane Flossie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT