Tropical Weather
Tropical Sea Temperatures
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center
Current Atlantic Satellite
Current Pacific Satellite
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
013
ABNT20 KNHC 010519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters
off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur
thereafter as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:30:08 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
310
ABPZ20 KNHC 010516
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 150 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 03:00 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 the center of Flossie was located near 16.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 062 WTPZ31 KNHC 010258 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 063 WTPZ21 KNHC 010258 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 241 WTPZ41 KNHC 010310 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Corrected Key Message 1 from Tropical Storm to Hurricane. The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making Flossie a hurricane. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid intensification. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 053
FOPZ11 KNHC 010259
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 21 6(27) 2(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 46(52) 31(83) 8(91) X(91) X(91)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 12(56) X(56) X(56)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 26(52) 6(58) 1(59) X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT